HSPF 유역모델을 이용한 낙동강유역 실시간 수문 유출 예측 (Operational Hydrological Forecast for the Nakdong River Basin Using HSPF Watershed Model)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국물환경학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국물환경학회지 / 29권 / 2호 / 212 ~ 222페이지
· 저자명 : 신창민, 나은혜, 이은정, 김덕길, 민중혁

초록

A watershed model was constructed using Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran to quantitatively predict the stream flows at major tributaries of Nakdong River basin, Korea. The entire basin was divided into 32 segments to effectively account for spatial variations in meteorological data and land segment parameter values of each tributary. The model was calibrated at ten tributaries including main stream of the river for a three-year period (2008 to 2010). The deviation values (Dv) of runoff volumes for operational stream flow forecasting for a six month period (2012.1.2 to 2012.6.29) at the ten tributaries ranged from -38.1 to 23.6%, which is on average 7.8% higher than those of runoff volumes for model calibration (-12.5 to 8.2%). The increased prediction errors were mainly from the uncertainties of numerical weather prediction modeling; nevertheless the stream flow forecasting results presented in this study were in a good agreement with the measured data.

영어초록

A watershed model was constructed using Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran to quantitatively predict the stream flows at major tributaries of Nakdong River basin, Korea. The entire basin was divided into 32 segments to effectively account for spatial variations in meteorological data and land segment parameter values of each tributary. The model was calibrated at ten tributaries including main stream of the river for a three-year period (2008 to 2010). The deviation values (Dv) of runoff volumes for operational stream flow forecasting for a six month period (2012.1.2 to 2012.6.29) at the ten tributaries ranged from -38.1 to 23.6%, which is on average 7.8% higher than those of runoff volumes for model calibration (-12.5 to 8.2%). The increased prediction errors were mainly from the uncertainties of numerical weather prediction modeling; nevertheless the stream flow forecasting results presented in this study were in a good agreement with the measured data.

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