1월 일최저기온 평균을 이용한 한국의 재현기간별 일 최저기온 극값 예측 (Estimation of the Periodic Extremes of Minimum Air Temperature Using January Mean of Daily Minimum Air Temperature in Korea)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국농림기상학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국농림기상학회지 / 14권 / 4호 / 155 ~ 160페이지
· 저자명 : 문경환, 손인창, 서형호, 최경산

초록

This study was conducted to develop a practical method for estimating the extremes of minimum air temperature with given return-period based on the frequency distribution of daily minimum air temperature in January. Daily temperature data were collected from 61 meteorological observatories country-wide from 1961 to 2010. Most of daily minimum temperature in January could be represented by a normal-distribution, so it is possible to predict stochastically the lowest temperature by the mean and standard deviation. We developed a quadratic function to estimate standard deviation in terms of daily minimum temperature in January. Also, we introduced a coefficient which can be used to predict an extreme of minimum temperature with mean and standard deviation, and is dependent on return-periods. Using this method, we were able to reproduce the past 30-year extremes with an error of 1.1 on average and 5.3 in the worst case.

영어초록

This study was conducted to develop a practical method for estimating the extremes of minimum air temperature with given return-period based on the frequency distribution of daily minimum air temperature in January. Daily temperature data were collected from 61 meteorological observatories country-wide from 1961 to 2010. Most of daily minimum temperature in January could be represented by a normal-distribution, so it is possible to predict stochastically the lowest temperature by the mean and standard deviation. We developed a quadratic function to estimate standard deviation in terms of daily minimum temperature in January. Also, we introduced a coefficient which can be used to predict an extreme of minimum temperature with mean and standard deviation, and is dependent on return-periods. Using this method, we were able to reproduce the past 30-year extremes with an error of 1.1 on average and 5.3 in the worst case.

참고자료

· 없음