Sectoral Shocks and Their Impacts on Cyclical Co-movements and Aggregate Employment (Sectoral Shocks and Their Impacts on Cyclical Co-movements and Aggregate Employment)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국계량경제학회
· 수록지 정보 : 계량경제학보 / 19권 / 3호 / 24 ~ 52페이지
· 저자명 : 김영식, 신관호

초록

This paper investigates if the sectoral shifts hypothesis initiated by Lilien
(1982) can be also satisfactorily explained by a multi-sectoral RBC (real business
cycle) model invented mainly to explain business cycle co-movements across sectors.
While the sectoral shifts hypothesis emphasizes asymmetric shocks across sectors that
lead to sectoral redistribution of workers and lowered total employment, the RBC model
tries to explain sectoral co-movements of output through sectoral linkages of
intermediate and investment goods. We confirm that the sectoral shifts hypothesis is
strongly supported by the Jorgenson's 35 industry data. We have adopted Horvarth
(2000)'s model to simulate the artificial data and applied the same regression equation
to test if the model is also consistent the sectoral shifts hypothesis. We find that the
model can successfully explain the empirical findings of the sectoral shifts hypothesis
when the adjustment costs of labor across sectors is weak.

영어초록

This paper investigates if the sectoral shifts hypothesis initiated by Lilien
(1982) can be also satisfactorily explained by a multi-sectoral RBC (real business
cycle) model invented mainly to explain business cycle co-movements across sectors.
While the sectoral shifts hypothesis emphasizes asymmetric shocks across sectors that
lead to sectoral redistribution of workers and lowered total employment, the RBC model
tries to explain sectoral co-movements of output through sectoral linkages of
intermediate and investment goods. We confirm that the sectoral shifts hypothesis is
strongly supported by the Jorgenson's 35 industry data. We have adopted Horvarth
(2000)'s model to simulate the artificial data and applied the same regression equation
to test if the model is also consistent the sectoral shifts hypothesis. We find that the
model can successfully explain the empirical findings of the sectoral shifts hypothesis
when the adjustment costs of labor across sectors is weak.

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