Maxent 모델을 이용한 반달가슴곰의 서식지 분포변화 예측

서지정보

ㆍ발행기관 : 한국하천호수학회 ㆍ수록지정보 : 생태와 환경 / 49권 / 3호
ㆍ저자명 : 김태근, 양두하, 조영호, 송교홍, 오장근

목차

서 론
재료 및 방 법
1. 반달가슴곰 위치자료
2. 기후 및 환경 변수
3. 반달가슴곰 분포 모델링
결과 및 고 찰
1. 반달가슴곰의 잠재 서식 지역 예측
2. 기후 및 환경 변수의 중요도 평가
3. 기후변화에 따른 반달가슴곰의 서식지 변화
적 요
REFERENCES

영어 초록

This study aims at providing basic data to objectively evaluate the areas suitable for reintroduction of the species of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in order to effectively preserve the Asiatic black bears in the Korean protection areas including national parks, and for the species restoration success. To this end, this study predicted the potential habitats in East Asia, Southeast Asia and India, where there are the records of Asiatic black bears’ appearances using the Maxent model and environmental variables related with climate, topography, road and land use. In addition, this study evaluated the effects of the relevant climate and environmental variables. This study also analyzed inhabitation range area suitable for Asiatic black and geographic change according to future climate change. As for the judgment accuracy of the Maxent model widely utilized for habitat distribution research of wildlife for preservation, AUC value was calculated as 0.893 (sd=0.121). This was useful in predicting Asiatic black bears’ potential habitat and evaluate the habitat change characteristics according to future climate change. Compare to the distribution map of Asiatic black bears evaluated by IUCN, Habitat suitability by the Maxent model were regionally diverse in extant areas and low in the extinct areas from IUCN map. This can be the result reflecting the regional difference in the environmental conditions where Asiatic black bears inhabit. As for the environment affecting the potential habitat distribution of Asiatic black bears, inhabitation rate was the highest, according to land coverage type, compared to climate, topography and artificial factors like distance from road. Especially, the area of deciduous broadleaf forest was predicted to be preferred, in comparison with other land coverage types. Annual mean precipitation and the precipitation during the driest period were projected to affect more than temperature’s annual range, and the inhabitation possibility was higher, as distance was farther from road. The reason is that Asiatic black bears are conjectured to prefer more stable area without human’s intervention, as well as prey resource. The inhabitation range was predicted to be expanded gradually to the southern part of India, China’s southeast coast and adjacent inland area, and Vietnam, Laos and Malaysia in the eastern coastal areas of Southeast Asia. The following areas are forecast to be the core areas, where Asiatic black bears can inhabit in the Asian region: Jeonnam, Jeonbuk and Gangwon areas in South Korea, Kyushu, Chugoku, Shikoku, Chubu, Kanto and Tohoku’s border area in Japan, and Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian border area in China. This study is expected to be used as basic data for the preservation and efficient management of Asiatic black bear’s habitat, artificially introduced individual bear’s release area selection, and the management of collision zones with humans.

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